Prediction score for death or lung transplant in emphysema caused by alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency
Official title: Development of a Prediction Score for the Occurrence of Death or Lung Transplantation in Patients With Emphysema Secondary to Alpha-1-anti-tripsin Deficiency
Run by University Hospital, Bordeaux · NCT07715617 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This study tests a new prediction tool to identify people with emphysema due to alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency who are at high risk of death or needing a lung transplant.
Quick facts
| Study type | Observational |
|---|---|
| Ages | 18 Years and up |
| Sex | All |
| Enrollment | 230 (estimated) |
| Sponsor | University Hospital, Bordeaux Academic / other |
| Locations | 4 sites (Bron and 3 other locations) |
| Status | Recruiting |
| Started | February 16, 2026 |
| Main results expected | March 16, 2031 |
| Study ends | March 16, 2031 |
| Registry record updated | July 20, 2026 |
| Trial ID | NCT07715617 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
Is this trial a fit for you?
✓Likely a good fit
Adults with emphysema and COPD due to alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (including ZZ, Znull, ZMalton, Z, and rare mutations) who have chest CT data available and are treated in participating pulmonology departments.
✕Probably not a fit
Patients without available CT imaging or appropriate data, or those not meeting inclusion criteria, may not benefit from the prediction model.
A plain-English reading of the study's rules. Only the study team can confirm whether you qualify.
What this trial studies
This multicenter retrospective study in French hospitals will develop a model that combines clinical data, biological markers, lung function, and quantitative CT imaging, including radiomics, to predict mortality or lung transplantation in patients with AATD-related emphysema. The model will be trained on data from adults with the condition and then validated using an independent external dataset from the EARCO cohort. The goal is to identify at-risk patients to tailor care and resource use, potentially reducing unnecessary treatments for low-risk individuals. The approach emphasizes integrating imaging biomarkers with traditional clinical measures to improve prognostication. The study is conducted under existing care data with plans for external validation to support generalizability.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the tool could help clinicians tailor treatment planning and monitoring to individual risk, potentially improving outcomes and resource use.
How similar studies have gone: Previous prognostic scores for COPD exist, but none have been validated specifically in AATD and combined with quantitative CT radiomics; this approach is exploratory and builds on emerging imaging-based prognostication.
Who can join: the full rules
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
1. Inclusion criteria: * diagnosed between 2010 and 2025 * in the pulmonology department * diagnosis of emphysema and COPD secondary to alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency ZZ, Znull, ZMalton, Z and rare mutations, * emphysema according to the initial thoracic CT scan (+/- 12 months after diagnosis). 2. Exclusion criteria: * Age \<18 years * Patient opposed to the use of their data for research purposes * Patient deprived of liberty by judicial decision * Patient not affiliated with a social security scheme * no CT scan available * no lung function test available the year around CT scan
Where it's running
-
Hospices Civils de Lyon
Bron, France Recruiting -
CHU de Lille
Lille, France Recruiting -
Hôpital BICHAT CLAUDE-BERNARD
Paris, France Recruiting -
Bordeaux University Hospital
Pessac, France Recruiting
Study contacts
- Study coordinator: Maéva ZYSMAN, MD, PhD
- Email: maeva.zysma@chu-bordeaux.fr
- Phone: +335 57 65 63 38
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How to take part
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Check the official listing on ClinicalTrials.gov for the latest contact details and recruitment status.
- Contact the study coordinator or principal investigator to ask for pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.