Can we predict which ED patients will need hospitalization and compare centers fairly?
Official title: Propensity to Hospitalize Patients From the ED in European Centers.An Observational Retrospective Quality-of-care Study
Run by Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research · NCT06354764 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This observational study tests a predictive model to estimate each patient’s chance of being admitted from the emergency department, to compare hospitals fairly across centers.
Quick facts
| Study type | Observational |
|---|---|
| Ages | 18 Years and up |
| Sex | All |
| Enrollment | 162000 (estimated) |
| Sponsor | Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research Academic / other |
| Locations | 2 sites (Torino and 1 other locations) |
| Status | Recruiting |
| Started | September 22, 2025 |
| Main results expected | January 2027 |
| Study ends | February 2027 |
| Registry record updated | October 9, 2026 |
| Trial ID | NCT06354764 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
Is this trial a fit for you?
✓Likely a good fit
Adults who arrive at participating EDs between January 1, 2021 and December 31, 2023.
✕Probably not a fit
Patients whose hospital admission decisions are not influenced by center characteristics or whose data do not contribute to the model may see no direct benefit.
A plain-English reading of the study's rules. Only the study team can confirm whether you qualify.
What this trial studies
This study builds a predictive model using patient data from multiple European EDs to estimate the probability of hospitalization at arrival. The goal is to create a benchmark that reflects patient characteristics and ED conditions, allowing observed hospitalization rates to be compared to expected rates. No active intervention is delivered; the study observes real-world practice across participating centers. By comparing observed rates to the model’s expectations, researchers aim to evaluate center-to-center performance in a fair, adjusted way.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, centers could understand how their admission patterns compare to the benchmark and identify opportunities to optimize care pathways.
How similar studies have gone: Previous efforts with center-to-center benchmarking using risk-adjusted models have shown promise, though the exact predictive approach in this European multicenter setup is novel.
Who can join: the full rules
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
Inclusion Criteria: * Adult * Arrived at emergency department between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2023 Exclusion Criteria: * None
Where it's running
-
Ospedale San Giovanni Bosco
Torino, Italy Recruiting -
Ospedale Sant'Andrea
Vercelli, Italy Recruiting
Study contacts
- Principal investigator: Guido Bertolini, MD — Istituto Di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri
- Study coordinator: Chiara Pandolfini
- Email: chiara.pandolfini@marionegri.it
- Phone: 0039 02 39014 253
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How to take part
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Check the official listing on ClinicalTrials.gov for the latest contact details and recruitment status.
- Contact the study coordinator or principal investigator to ask for pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.