Improve infectious disease forecasts by understanding how errors grow
Official title: Quantifying Error Growth to Improve Infectious Disease Forecast Accuracy
Funded at Columbia University Health Sciences · NIH-11392219 · Data updated 2026-11-12
A project to understand why predicting infectious disease outbreaks becomes less accurate over time and to make those forecasts more reliable for planning care.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Columbia University Health Sciences NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (New York, United States) |
| Project start | June 9, 2021 |
| Project end | May 31, 2027 |
| Funding year | 2026 |
| Award (this year) | $649,085 |
| NIH project number | 5R01AI163023-05 |
| Project ID | NIH-11392219 on NIH RePORTER |
Who could benefit from this research
✓Could help
Not applicable (this is a modeling and methodological project, not a patient-focused trial)
✕Less likely to help
Patients are not directly enrolled; however, improved forecasts can indirectly benefit communities by guiding resource planning.
What this research studies
This research will adapt methods from weather forecasting to contagious disease modeling in order to quantify how forecast errors accumulate. The team will study forecast systems for diseases like COVID-19 to identify where and why inaccuracies arise. The goal is to develop approaches to control error growth so that hospital staffing, supply needs, and public health decisions can be better prepared in advance.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, forecasts could be more reliable, helping clinics and hospitals prepare for patient surges and allocate supplies more efficiently.
How similar studies have gone: Weather and other forecasting fields have successfully quantified and reduced error growth, and similar approaches are being applied to infectious disease forecasting.
Where this research is happening
-
Columbia University Health Sciences
New York, United States Active
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Shaman, Jeffrey L — Columbia University Health Sciences
- Study coordinator: Shaman, Jeffrey L
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About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page.