Predicting pregnancy outcomes after assisted reproduction using a machine-learning model
Official title: Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Prognostic Model for Early Prediction of Pregnancy Outcomes Following Assisted Reproductive Treatment: A Retrospective and Prospective Cohort Study
Run by BetaPlus Center for Reproductive Medicine · NCT07855783 · Data updated 2026-11-12
A machine-learning model will be tested to see if early beta-hCG levels can predict live birth and identify pregnancies at risk after IVF or FET (with exploratory look at IUI).
Quick facts
| Study type | Observational |
|---|---|
| Ages | 18 Years to 45 Years |
| Sex | Women only |
| Enrollment | 2200 (estimated) |
| Sponsor | BetaPlus Center for Reproductive Medicine Academic / other |
| Locations | 2 sites (Rijeka and 1 other locations) |
| Status | Recruiting |
| Started | January 1, 2026 |
| Main results expected | December 31, 2026 |
| Study ends | September 30, 2027 |
| Registry record updated | October 7, 2026 |
| Trial ID | NCT07855783 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
Is this trial a fit for you?
✓Likely a good fit
Women who underwent ART (IUI, IVF/ICSI, or FET) with at least one positive early beta-hCG and available pregnancy outcomes.
✕Probably not a fit
Patients without early beta-hCG data or lacking sufficient clinical variables for modeling may not benefit from the predictions.
A plain-English reading of the study's rules. Only the study team can confirm whether you qualify.
What this trial studies
This observational study will develop and validate a machine-learning model that uses early pregnancy data, especially serum beta-hCG values, to predict live birth and differentiate pregnancies at risk for biochemical pregnancy or early loss after ART. Data will come from retrospective clinical records, with a prospective validation cohort receiving no changes to their treatment. The primary focus is on IVF and FET cycles, with exploratory analysis for IUI outcomes. The study aims to provide early, actionable information to improve counseling and management during the first weeks after a positive pregnancy test.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the model could help clinicians and patients understand early pregnancy prognosis after ART and guide management decisions.
How similar studies have gone: Previous research has linked beta-hCG patterns to pregnancy outcomes, and similar approaches have shown promise in prognostic modeling for ART pregnancies.
Who can join: the full rules
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
Inclusion Criteria: * Women who underwent ART procedures (IUI, IVF/ICSI, or FET) using homologous oocytes. * Availability of at least one positive early serum beta-HCG measurement after aspiration, FET, or insemination (beta-HCG \>10 mIU/mL). * Availability of the pregnancy outcome. * Availability of relevant patient characteristics and clinical variables required for predictive modeling. * For embryo-transfer cycles, availability of information on embryo developmental stage and number of embryos transferred where applicable. * For the prospective validation cohort, written informed consent. Exclusion Criteria * Missing beta-HCG measurements critical for model input. * Missing key demographic or clinical variables required for predictive modeling. * Missing ART treatment protocol where required for the model. * Missing pregnancy outcomes. * Multiple pregnancy, hydatidiform mole, heterotopic pregnancy, and ectopic pregnancy will be excluded from the primary live-birth analysis but will be described separately and, where sample size permits, evaluated as secondary adverse pregnancy outcomes. * Non-consent for prospective participation in validation.
Where it's running
-
Clinical Hospital Center
Rijeka, Croatia Recruiting -
BetaPlus Center for Reproductive Medicine
Zagreb, Croatia Recruiting
Study contacts
- Principal investigator: Romana Dmitrovic — BetaPlus Center for Reproductive Medicine
- Study coordinator: Romana Dmitrovic
- Email: romana@betaplus.hr
- Phone: +385981983563
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How to take part
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Check the official listing on ClinicalTrials.gov for the latest contact details and recruitment status.
- Contact the study coordinator or principal investigator to ask for pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.