Early risk stratification of thyroid eye disease in newly diagnosed Graves' disease
Official title: Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Graves' Orbitopathy Using Systematic Ophthalmological Data and Inflammatory Metabolic Biomarkers in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Graves' Disease
Run by University of Copenhagen · NCT07812194 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This study tests whether early eye-related signs, blood and tear biomarkers, or eye surface features can predict who with Graves’ disease will develop thyroid eye disease within a year.
Quick facts
| Study type | Observational |
|---|---|
| Ages | 18 Years and up |
| Sex | All |
| Enrollment | 430 (estimated) |
| Sponsor | University of Copenhagen Academic / other |
| Locations | 1 site (Herlev) |
| Status | Recruiting |
| Started | October 16, 2026 |
| Main results expected | August 31, 2028 |
| Study ends | September 1, 2029 |
| Registry record updated | October 27, 2026 |
| Trial ID | NCT07812194 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
Is this trial a fit for you?
✓Likely a good fit
Adults (18+) with newly diagnosed Graves’ disease residing in or managed within the Capital Region of Denmark, plus a healthy control group and a moderate-to-severe TED group for comparison.
✕Probably not a fit
Participants without progression to TED or without detectable predictive biomarkers may not experience a direct benefit.
A plain-English reading of the study's rules. Only the study team can confirm whether you qualify.
What this trial studies
This is a prospective observational cohort study conducted in the Capital Region of Denmark. It enrolls adults with newly diagnosed Graves’ disease and follows them for about one year, collecting clinical data, eye examinations, photographs, and biological samples (blood, tears, and a small ocular surface swab). A healthy control group and a moderate-to-severe TED group are included to contextualize findings. The goal is to identify early predictors of thyroid eye disease to enable closer ophthalmologic monitoring and timely referrals. The study will analyze clinical, biochemical, tear fluid, and ocular surface microbiome biomarkers to see which factors are associated with higher TED risk.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the study could enable earlier identification of patients at risk for TED and improve monitoring and treatment pathways.
How similar studies have gone: Previous work has identified some risk factors but robust early prediction in GD for TED remains an area with ongoing investigation.
Who can join: the full rules
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
Inclusion Criteria: Newly Diagnosed Graves' Disease (GD) Cohort: * Age 18 years or older * Newly diagnosed GD * Positive TSH receptor antibodies, defined as TRAb \>1.5 IU/L * Biochemical hyperthyroidism, defined as TSH \<0.01 mIU/L * Residence in and/or clinical management within the Capital Region of Denmark, including Hvidovre Hospital, Rigshospitalet, Amager Hospital, Nordsjællands Hospital, Herlev Hospital, and Bispebjerg Hospital. * Ability to provide oral and written informed consent Healthy Control Group: * Age 18 years or older * No known history of GD * No previous positive TRAb measurement * No known thyroid dysfunction requiring antithyroid drug therapy or thyroid hormone replacement therapy * Ability to provide oral and written informed consent Moderate-to-Severe Thyroid Eye Disease (TED) Group: * Age 18 years or older * Diagnosis of moderate-to-severe TED * Followed or treated in a relevant specialized clinical setting * Ability to provide oral and written informed consent Exclusion Criteria: Newly Diagnosed GD Cohort: * Age below 18 years * Previous documented TRAb measurement \>1.5 IU/L prior to the current diagnostic episode * Inability to provide informed consent * Inability to complete the baseline assessment within the predefined study timeframe Healthy Control Group: * Age below 18 years * Known Graves' disease or previous positive TRAb measurement * Known thyroid dysfunction requiring antithyroid drug therapy or thyroid hormone replacement therapy * Inability to provide informed consent Moderate-to-Severe TED Group: * Age below 18 years * Inability to provide informed consent * Inability to complete the planned study assessment
Where it's running
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Department of Medical Diseases, Endocrinology Unit, Herlev-Gentofte Hospital
Herlev, Denmark Recruiting
Study contacts
- Principal investigator: Birte Nygaard, M.D., Ph.D. — Herlev Hospital
- Study coordinator: Birte Nygaard, M.D., Ph.D
- Email: birte.nygaard@regionh.dk
- Phone: +4538689527
Similar studies
Other studies for the same condition or treatment. Recruiting studies are listed first.
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ETHY-001 safety and activity in Thyroid Eye Disease (TED)
This study tests ETHY-001 versus placebo to see if it is safe, tolerable, and shows activity in people with thyroid eye disease.
-
Linsitinib in moderate to severe Thyroid Eye Disease (TED)
This study tests whether linsitinib can help people with moderate to severe TED associated with Graves' disease or Hashimoto's thyroiditis.
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Efgartigimod for Graves' Disease in adults
We are testing if efgartigimod given under the skin can help adults with Graves' disease by improving thyroid function and whether it is safe and tolerable.
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Tofacitinib for steroid‑resistant moderate-to-severe thyroid eye disease
This will test whether taking oral tofacitinib (5 mg twice daily) for 24 weeks can reduce eye bulging and inflammation in adults with moderate-to-severe thyroid eye disease who don't respond to or cannot take high-dose steroids.
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Felzartamab for Graves’ Disease: See if it helps control thyroids and reduce need for ATDs
This study tests felzartamab vs placebo in adults with Graves’ disease to see if it can normalize thyroid hormones and let people stop anti-thyroid drugs.
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AI-based MRI and ultrasound for thyroid-related eye disease
This study tests an AI model using orbital MRI and eye ultrasound to help diagnose activity and severity of thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy and predict its course in adults.
How to take part
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Check the official listing on ClinicalTrials.gov for the latest contact details and recruitment status.
- Contact the study coordinator or principal investigator to ask for pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.