Predicting unruptured brain aneurysm rupture risk with blood pressure variability and 3D changes
Official title: A Prospective Longitudinal Observational Cohort Study to Develop and Validate a Predictive Model for Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Risk Based on Blood Pressure Variability and Three-Dimensional Structural Dynamic Evolution
Run by Beijing Tiantan Hospital · NCT07893574 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This study follows adults with unruptured intracranial aneurysms who are managed without surgery to see if blood pressure variability and 3D changes in the aneurysm can predict rupture risk using advanced AI.
Quick facts
| Study type | Observational |
|---|---|
| Ages | 18 Years to 80 Years |
| Sex | All |
| Enrollment | 2000 (estimated) |
| Sponsor | Beijing Tiantan Hospital Academic / other |
| Locations | 1 site (Beijing) |
| Status | Recruiting |
| Started | January 1, 2025 |
| Main results expected | December 31, 2037 |
| Study ends | December 31, 2037 |
| Registry record updated | October 26, 2026 |
| Trial ID | NCT07893574 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
Is this trial a fit for you?
✓Likely a good fit
Adults aged 18-80 with one or more UIAs confirmed by CTA/MRA/DSA and managed with conservative observation who are able and willing to undergo repeated BP measurements and imaging follow-up.
✕Probably not a fit
Patients whose aneurysm geometry or BP patterns do not provide predictive signals or who require immediate surgical or endovascular treatment are unlikely to benefit.
A plain-English reading of the study's rules. Only the study team can confirm whether you qualify.
What this trial studies
This is a single-center, prospective, longitudinal observational cohort of adults with UIAs kept under conservative management. The study collects time-series data on blood pressure variability and 3D aneurysm morphology, then develops deep learning models (LSTM and Transformer) to predict rupture risk. It also compares model predictions with traditional risk scores such as PHASES and examines links between BPV and aneurysm evolution. Enrollment is consecutive for eligible patients aged 18-80 confirmed by CTA, MRA, or DSA, with follow-up imaging and BP monitoring planned over multiple time points.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the models could provide earlier, personalized rupture risk estimates to inform management decisions for UIAs.
How similar studies have gone: Prior work suggests imaging and hemodynamic data can inform aneurysm risk, but the application of deep learning on combined BPV and 3D evolution for rupture prediction is a relatively novel approach.
Who can join: the full rules
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
Inclusion Criteria: * Age 18 to 80 years at enrollment. * Diagnosis of one or more unruptured intracranial aneurysms confirmed by CT angiography (CTA), magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), or digital subtraction angiography (DSA). * Managed by conservative observation (no prophylactic clipping, coiling, stent-assisted coiling, or flow diversion) as decided by the treating neurovascular team. * Able and willing to undergo repeated blood pressure variability assessment and imaging follow-up, including 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and CTA/MRA/DSA as clinically indicated. * Provides written informed consent if planning in-hospital follow-up, or oral informed consent if only telephone follow-up and prior complete data are available per protocol. * For participants without preexisting repeat imaging and blood pressure data, willing to attend hospital follow-up at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 months; all participants agree to telephone follow-up every 6 to 12 months. Exclusion Criteria: * Known allergy to iodinated contrast or other contraindications preventing CTA/DSA, or contraindications to MRA/contrast preventing required imaging. * Severe renal impairment, contraindicated for required contrast-enhanced imaging per investigator judgment. * Other clinically significant cerebrovascular diseases that confound aneurysm natural history, including moyamoya disease, arteriovenous malformation, arteriovenous fistula, or symptomatic intracranial stenosis. * Dissecting, traumatic, mycotic, or tumor-associated aneurysms, or aneurysms secondary to infective/inflammatory arteriopathy. * Severe hepatic, cardiac, renal, respiratory, hematologic, or other systemic organ dysfunction that would preclude follow-up or bias blood pressure/imaging data. * Expected survival less than 6 months due to non-cerebral disease. * Inability to provide informed consent, inability to communicate, severe psychiatric disease, or no available telephone/contact for follow-up. * Already enrolled in another UIA interventional trial that prohibits concurrent observation registration, or prior prophylactic treatment of all enrolled aneurysms.
Where it's running
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Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University
Beijing, China Recruiting
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How to take part
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Check the official listing on ClinicalTrials.gov for the latest contact details and recruitment status.
- Contact the study coordinator or principal investigator to ask for pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.