How different tobacco tax plans and availability of regular versus low-nicotine cigarettes affect what smokers buy in a virtual marketplace
Official title: The Impact of Availability of Conventional Cigarettes and LNCs in the Context of Innovative Tax Proposals
Run by Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University · NCT07142668 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This project tests whether four different tobacco tax proposals and the presence or absence of regular (normal-nicotine) cigarettes change purchasing choices among adult daily smokers in a simulated marketplace.
Quick facts
| Study type | Interventional |
|---|---|
| Ages | 21 Years and up |
| Sex | All |
| Enrollment | 316 (estimated) |
| Sponsor | Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Academic / other |
| Locations | 2 sites (Buffalo, New York and 1 other locations) |
| Status | Recruiting |
| Started | August 14, 2025 |
| Main results expected | September 15, 2026 |
| Study ends | September 30, 2026 |
| Registry record updated | May 19, 2026 |
| Trial ID | NCT07142668 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
Is this trial a fit for you?
✓Likely a good fit
Ideal participants are adults aged 21 or older who smoke at least 10 cigarettes per day, have a breath CO ≥ 8 ppm, use other tobacco products less than weekly, and meet health and stability criteria for participation.
✕Probably not a fit
People who smoke fewer than 10 cigarettes per day, are under 21, are pregnant or lactating, are using smoking-cessation medications, plan to quit imminently, or have uncontrolled medical/mental health conditions are unlikely to be eligible or to benefit from this protocol.
A plain-English reading of the study's rules. Only the study team can confirm whether you qualify.
What this trial studies
Researchers will use an Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) with a within/between-subjects design to simulate purchasing decisions under four tax proposals (Tobacco Parity, Nicotine-Content, Harm-Reduction, and Modified Risk Tobacco Product taxes). Each participant completes two control trials and one tax-condition trial, and each trial is run twice: once with regular cigarettes available and once without. Within each condition participants face five price scenarios where tax rates rise across scenarios and products are assigned to high-, medium-, or no-tax tiers depending on the proposal. The ETM records how cigarette nicotine content and tax structure affect product substitution and purchasing patterns.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the results could help policymakers design taxes that steer smokers toward lower-risk products or reduce overall cigarette consumption.
How similar studies have gone: Prior research using the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace has successfully predicted how price and product availability influence tobacco purchasing and substitution, though combining multiple novel tax structures with nicotine-content availability is a relatively new application.
Who can join: the full rules
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
Inclusion Criteria: * provide informed consent * provide a breath carbon monoxide sample ≥ 8 ppm, * be at least 21 years of age (the legal age to purchase tobacco), * smoke at least 10 cigarettes daily, and * use other tobacco products less than weekly. Exclusion Criteria: * report uncontrolled physical or mental health conditions (e.g., uncontrolled diabetes, high blood pressure, major depressive disorder, etc.), * use of smoking cessation medications (e.g., nicotine replacement, bupropion, varenicline) in the past 30 days, * report concrete, immediate plans to alter/quit using their usual tobacco products in the next 30 days, * be pregnant or lactating, or * have plans to move out of the area during the experiment.
Where it's running
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Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center
Buffalo, New York, United States Recruiting -
Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC
Roanoke, Virginia, United States Recruiting
Study contacts
- Principal investigator: Jeff S Stein, Ph.D. — Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC
- Study coordinator: Kirstin Gatchalian
- Email: kmgatch@vtc.vt.edu
- Phone: 540-526-2071
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How to take part
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Check the official listing on ClinicalTrials.gov for the latest contact details and recruitment status.
- Contact the study coordinator or principal investigator to ask for pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.