How different tobacco tax plans and availability of regular versus low-nicotine cigarettes affect what smokers buy in a virtual marketplace

The Impact of Availability of Conventional Cigarettes and LNCs in the Context of Innovative Tax Proposals

This project tests whether four different tobacco tax proposals and the presence or absence of regular (normal-nicotine) cigarettes change purchasing choices among adult daily smokers in a simulated marketplace.

Quick facts

• Phase: Not applicable
• Study type: Interventional
• Enrollment: 316 (estimated)
• Ages: 21 Years and up
• Sex: All
• Sponsor: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Academic / other)
• Locations: 2 sites (Buffalo, New York and 1 other locations)
• Trial ID: NCT07142668 on ClinicalTrials.gov

What this trial studies

Researchers will use an Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) with a within/between-subjects design to simulate purchasing decisions under four tax proposals (Tobacco Parity, Nicotine-Content, Harm-Reduction, and Modified Risk Tobacco Product taxes). Each participant completes two control trials and one tax-condition trial, and each trial is run twice: once with regular cigarettes available and once without. Within each condition participants face five price scenarios where tax rates rise across scenarios and products are assigned to high-, medium-, or no-tax tiers depending on the proposal. The ETM records how cigarette nicotine content and tax structure affect product substitution and purchasing patterns.

Who should consider this trial

Good fit: Ideal participants are adults aged 21 or older who smoke at least 10 cigarettes per day, have a breath CO ≥ 8 ppm, use other tobacco products less than weekly, and meet health and stability criteria for participation.

Not a fit: People who smoke fewer than 10 cigarettes per day, are under 21, are pregnant or lactating, are using smoking-cessation medications, plan to quit imminently, or have uncontrolled medical/mental health conditions are unlikely to be eligible or to benefit from this protocol.

Why it matters

Potential benefit: If successful, the results could help policymakers design taxes that steer smokers toward lower-risk products or reduce overall cigarette consumption.

How similar studies have performed: Prior research using the Experimental Tobacco Marketplace has successfully predicted how price and product availability influence tobacco purchasing and substitution, though combining multiple novel tax structures with nicotine-content availability is a relatively new application.

Eligibility criteria

Inclusion Criteria:

* provide informed consent
* provide a breath carbon monoxide sample ≥ 8 ppm,
* be at least 21 years of age (the legal age to purchase tobacco),
* smoke at least 10 cigarettes daily, and
* use other tobacco products less than weekly.

Exclusion Criteria:

* report uncontrolled physical or mental health conditions (e.g., uncontrolled diabetes, high blood pressure, major depressive disorder, etc.),
* use of smoking cessation medications (e.g., nicotine replacement, bupropion, varenicline) in the past 30 days,
* report concrete, immediate plans to alter/quit using their usual tobacco products in the next 30 days,
* be pregnant or lactating, or
* have plans to move out of the area during the experiment.

Where this trial is running

Buffalo, New York and 1 other locations

• Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center — Buffalo, New York, United States (Recruiting)
• Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC — Roanoke, Virginia, United States (Recruiting)

Study contacts

• Principal investigator: Jeff S Stein, Ph.D. — Fralin Biomedical Research Institute at VTC
• Study coordinator: Kirstin Gatchalian

Conditions Cigarette Smoking; Experimental Tobacco Marketplace