Forecasting how new tobacco taxes could affect what people buy and use
Official title: Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Forecasting the Impact of Novel Tax Proposals
Funded at Virginia Polytechnic Inst and St Univ · NIH-11391033 · Data updated 2026-11-12
Aims to predict how four different new tobacco tax ideas might change what people buy and how they smoke, considering income and education levels.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Virginia Polytechnic Inst and St Univ NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Blacksburg, United States) |
| Project start | July 15, 2022 |
| Project end | June 30, 2027 |
| Funding year | 2026 |
| Award (this year) | $642,460 |
| NIH project number | 5R01CA266966-05 |
| Project ID | NIH-11391033 on NIH RePORTER |
Who could benefit from this research
✓Could help
Not applicable to individual patients; this is a policy and behavioral study.
✕Less likely to help
No direct patient participation or benefit in this grant.
What this research studies
This project uses a specialized Experimental Tobacco Marketplace to simulate real-world purchasing under proposed tax rules. Researchers will test how four tax designs—parity by product, nicotine content, harm potential, and FDA designation as modified-risk—could shift choices among tobacco products. The study explores how these policies interact with income and education to influence purchasing patterns and cross-product substitution. The work builds on established behavioral economics methods to forecast policy impact before any real-world changes. Results could guide policymakers on how taxes might affect consumer behavior and public health.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, it could help policymakers design tobacco taxes that reduce harm and influence healthier purchasing choices.
How similar studies have gone: Previous ETM-based work has shown promise in predicting consumer responses to tobacco policies; this study extends that approach to novel tax designs.
Where this research is happening
-
Virginia Polytechnic Inst and St Univ
Blacksburg, United States Active
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Stein, Jeffrey Scott — Virginia Polytechnic Inst and St Univ
- Study coordinator: Stein, Jeffrey Scott
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page.