Forecasting ICU and Ventilator Days Until 2040
Prognostication of ICU- and Ventilator- Days Over the Next Years Until 2040 Using Statistical Projection Models and Retrospective Data From International Databases From 2005-2023 (PrognostICate- Study).
This study is trying to predict how long patients will stay in the ICU and need breathing machines over the next 20 years to help hospitals plan better for future needs.
Quick facts
| Study type | Observational |
|---|---|
| Enrollment | 10000000 (estimated) |
| Ages | 1 Day to 120 Years |
| Sex | All |
| Sponsor | University Hospital of Cologne Academic / other |
| Locations | 1 site (Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia) |
| Trial ID | NCT06289075 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
What this trial studies
This observational study aims to predict the length of stay in Intensive Care Units (ICULOS) and the duration of mechanical ventilation (LOMV) for ICU patients across various demographics until the year 2040. By analyzing historical data from international ICU databases and population statistics from 2005 to 2023, the study employs multiple statistical forecasting models, including ARIMA, logistic regression, Poisson regression, and ETS. The validity of these models will be assessed through a rigorous testing process to ensure accurate predictions. The findings will help in resource allocation and planning for future ICU demands.
Who should consider this trial
Good fit: Ideal candidates for this study are all patients who were admitted to an ICU between 2005 and 2023.
Not a fit: Patients who were not admitted to an ICU or had an ICU stay of less than 4 hours will not benefit from this study.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, this study could enhance resource allocation in ICUs, improving patient care and outcomes.
How similar studies have performed: Previous studies have attempted to predict ICU length of stay, but this study's comprehensive approach using multiple forecasting models is relatively novel.
Eligibility criteria
Show full inclusion / exclusion criteria
Inclusion Criteria: * All patients admitted to an ICU between the years 2005-2023 Exclusion Criteria: * Patients without ICU admission or ICU admission \< 4 hours
Where this trial is running
Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia
- Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine — Cologne, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany (Recruiting)
Study contacts
- Study coordinator: Sandra Emily Stoll, DR. AP
- Email: sandraemilystoll@googlemail.com
- Phone: +491735697566
How to participate
- Review the eligibility criteria above with your treating physician.
- Visit the official trial page on ClinicalTrials.gov for the most current contact information and recruitment status.
- Contact the listed study coordinator or principal investigator to request pre-screening. Pre-screening is free and never obligates you to enroll.