Why U.S. heart disease deaths stopped falling
Identifying the Causes of the Stagnation in National U.S. Cardiovascular Disease Mortality
This project looks at whether rising obesity, stalled cigarette-smoking declines, survivors of prior heart events, or growing social and geographic inequality are keeping U.S. heart disease death rates from improving.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | University of Texas Med Br Galveston NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Galveston, United States) |
| Project ID | NIH-11261122 on NIH RePORTER |
What this research studies
Researchers will use national U.S. data to find which factors explain why cardiovascular (heart and blood vessel) death rates have stopped improving since 2010. They will reconstruct population-level obesity histories, model changes in cigarette smoking using extended demographic methods, quantify survivor effects from better survival after prior CVD events, and analyze socioeconomic and geographic disparities. The team will apply novel statistical and demographic techniques (including an extension of the Preston–Glei–Wilmoth approach) to estimate how much each factor contributed to the mortality trends. Findings aim to show which risks and places should be targeted to help lower future heart disease deaths.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: People represented in the analysis are U.S. adults, especially those with obesity, a history of smoking, prior cardiovascular events, or who live in socioeconomically vulnerable or high-risk regions.
Not a fit: This project will not provide direct medical treatment, so people seeking immediate personal clinical benefits or treatments should not expect to receive them from this research.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: Results could point health officials and clinicians to the most important causes so prevention and policy can better reduce heart disease deaths.
How similar studies have performed: Previous research has noted the stall in U.S. cardiovascular mortality, and this team has published on that pattern, but the comprehensive causal analysis combining these four hypotheses is new.
Where this research is happening
Galveston, United States
- University of Texas Med Br Galveston — Galveston, United States (Active)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Mehta, Neil — University of Texas Med Br Galveston
- Study coordinator: Mehta, Neil
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.