Real-time tools to predict infectious disease outbreaks
Methods for real-time forecasting and inference during infectious disease outbreaks
Building computer tools that predict infectious disease outbreaks in real time so public health teams and communities can respond faster.
Quick facts
| Grant type | NIH-funded research |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | University of Massachusetts Amherst NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Hadley, United States) |
| Project ID | NIH-11178580 on NIH RePORTER |
What this research studies
As someone who could be affected by an outbreak, this project builds computer models that use real-time health and community data to predict where and when infections may spike. The team creates both single models and combined 'ensemble' forecasts, and runs them through an online platform that collects and compares predictions from many groups. The platform is open and helps share forecast results with public health officials, while the project also produces free training modules so local health staff can learn to use and trust the forecasts. The work aims to link forecasts to practical actions like planning hospital staffing or targeting vaccinations.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: People living in communities facing infectious disease outbreaks, or patients and health systems willing to share timely health data, could be involved or benefit from the forecasts.
Not a fit: Individuals with health issues unrelated to infectious diseases or those in areas that do not share timely data with public health systems may see little direct benefit.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, these tools could help public health officials anticipate outbreaks earlier and target resources to reduce illness and hospital strain.
How similar studies have performed: Real-time forecasting approaches have shown promise during influenza seasons and the COVID-19 pandemic but remain an evolving field with mixed results and ongoing refinement.
Where this research is happening
Hadley, United States
- University of Massachusetts Amherst — Hadley, United States (Active)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Reich, Nicholas G — University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Study coordinator: Reich, Nicholas G
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.