Real-time disease prediction to help local health departments prevent outbreaks
Real-time predictive modeling for public health departments to control infectious diseases
Building real-time prediction tools to help public health departments target vaccinations and stop outbreaks in communities at risk for pertussis, seasonal flu, and hepatitis A.
Quick facts
| Grant type | NIH-funded research |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Stanford University NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Stanford, United States) |
| Project ID | NIH-11136939 on NIH RePORTER |
What this research studies
From my view as a patient, researchers are creating open-source computer models that use health and demographic data to spot neighborhoods and groups at higher risk for pertussis, influenza, and hepatitis A. They will work closely with the California Department of Public Health and other data sources to produce real-time risk maps and recommendations for where vaccines would do the most good. The team plans to translate those model outputs into practical guidance for local health departments so vaccines and resources can be sent to the places that need them most. If the tools work, public health officials could use them during outbreaks to reduce the number of infections in my community.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: People living in communities served by participating public health departments—especially areas with higher rates of pertussis, seasonal influenza, or hepatitis A—are the intended beneficiaries of this work.
Not a fit: Individuals in areas with very low risk for these infections or whose health needs are unrelated to vaccine-preventable infectious diseases are less likely to see direct benefit.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, this could mean more precisely targeted vaccination campaigns and fewer community outbreaks of pertussis, flu, and hepatitis A.
How similar studies have performed: Similar predictive modeling tools were used during the COVID-19 pandemic with mixed practical impact, so this approach is promising but not yet proven to change policy or outcomes consistently.
Where this research is happening
Stanford, United States
- Stanford University — Stanford, United States (Active)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Lo, Nathan — Stanford University
- Study coordinator: Lo, Nathan
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.