Predicting which flu strains vaccines should target
Official title: Predictive fitness models for influenza vaccine strain selection
Funded at Sloan-Kettering Inst Can Research · NIH-11468406 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This work uses computer and biophysical models to forecast which flu virus strains are likely to spread so vaccines can better protect people.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Sloan-Kettering Inst Can Research NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (New York, United States) |
| Project start | January 13, 2022 |
| Project end | December 31, 2026 |
| Funding year | 2026 |
| Award (this year) | $585,978 |
| NIH project number | 7R01AI165820-05 |
| Project ID | NIH-11468406 on NIH RePORTER |
Who could benefit from this research
✓Could help
This project does not enroll patients directly but is relevant to anyone at risk of seasonal influenza, particularly older adults, young children, and people with chronic medical conditions.
✕Less likely to help
People seeking immediate personal treatment or hoping to receive experimental vaccines through this project are unlikely to benefit, since the work focuses on modeling to inform future vaccine formulations.
What this research studies
Researchers are building computational and biophysical models of how human immune systems — including B-cell and T-cell responses — recognize flu viruses and shape viral evolution. They combine genetic, antigenic, and global transmission data to estimate population immunity and the fitness of different viral lineages. The goal is to identify which strains are most likely to dominate about a year ahead to guide vaccine strain selection. The project uses large-scale surveillance and laboratory-derived data to simulate how immune pressure drives antigenic change.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, this could lead to better-matched seasonal flu vaccines and fewer cases of influenza.
How similar studies have gone: Related predictive models have shown promise in forecasting dominant flu lineages but are still imperfect and remain an active area of research.
Where this research is happening
-
Sloan-Kettering Inst Can Research
New York, United States Active
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Luksza, Marta — Sloan-Kettering Inst Can Research
- Study coordinator: Luksza, Marta
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About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page.