Predicting When a Migraine Will Start
Forecasting Migraine Attacks
['FUNDING_R01'] · MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL · NIH-11285222
This project creates a personalized 12-hour migraine forecast using daily information like sleep, mood, medication use, stress, and early warning signs to help people with migraines plan treatment.
Quick facts
| Phase | ['FUNDING_R01'] |
|---|---|
| Study type | Nih_funding |
| Sex | All |
| Sponsor | MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL (nih funded) |
| Locations | 1 site (BOSTON, UNITED STATES) |
| Trial ID | NIH-11285222 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
What this research studies
You would provide daily information such as sleep, mood, medication use, stress levels, prodromal symptoms, and your own prediction about an upcoming headache. The team combines these inputs with temporal patterns and statistical predictors to produce a short-term (12-hour) risk forecast called HAPRED-III. The model parameters are continuously updated using Bayesian estimation so the forecast adapts to your personal pattern over time. The goal is to improve on prior HAPRED models by adding new predictors and better calibration for everyday use.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: Ideal candidates are adults who experience recurrent migraines and can reliably record daily symptoms such as sleep, mood, medication use, stress, and any early warning signs.
Not a fit: People with very infrequent migraines, inability to track daily data, or migraine types that lack prodromal signs may not see benefit from the forecasting approach.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the forecast could help you take abortive medications earlier or make plans to reduce disruption when a migraine is likely.
How similar studies have performed: Earlier HAPRED-I and HAPRED-II forecasting models showed promise but had weaknesses, and this project aims to improve predictive power by adding predictors and Bayesian updating.
Where this research is happening
BOSTON, UNITED STATES
- MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL — BOSTON, UNITED STATES (ACTIVE)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: HOULE, TIMOTHY T — MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL
- Study coordinator: HOULE, TIMOTHY T
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.