Predicting mortality risk in autistic adults aged 65 and older

Developing an autism-specific mortality risk index using data from Medicare-enrolled autistic older adults

NIH-funded research Ohio State University · NIH-11311297

Researchers will use Medicare and local medical records to build a machine-learning tool that estimates which autistic adults 65+ may face higher risk of death so care can be better focused.

Quick facts

Grant typeR01 grant
Study typeNIH-funded research
Funding institutionOhio State University NIH-funded
Lab location1 site (Columbus, UNITED STATES)
Project IDNIH-11311297 on NIH RePORTER

What this research studies

This project looks at national Medicare billing data and local electronic health records to find health conditions and combinations of problems linked with earlier death in autistic older adults. The team will apply a machine-learning method called logic forest to identify which comorbidities and geriatric complaints matter most for time-to-death in autistic versus non-autistic older adults. They will compare existing mortality risk calculators to a new autism-specific index and then map how risk is distributed among autistic older adults in local health systems. The work is intended to guide future efforts to monitor and support people identified as high risk.

Who could benefit from this research

Good fit: Autistic adults aged 65 and older who are enrolled in Medicare or who receive care within participating local health systems would be the most relevant candidates for this work.

Not a fit: Younger autistic individuals, those without Medicare coverage, or people whose health records are not linked to the datasets used are unlikely to be included or benefit directly from this project.

Why it matters

Potential benefit: If successful, the tool could help clinicians spot autistic older adults at higher risk of dying so they can offer earlier, targeted care or preventive services.

How similar studies have performed: General mortality risk calculators exist and can predict outcomes in older adults, but creating an autism-specific mortality index is novel and largely untested.

Where this research is happening

Columbus, UNITED STATES

Researchers

About this research

  1. This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
  2. Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
  3. For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.
Last reviewed 2026-06-13 by the Find a Trial editorial team. Information on this page is for educational purposes and is not medical advice. Always consult qualified healthcare professionals about clinical trial participation.