Predicting long-term opioid use in patients

Cross-state validation of a novel prescription-based model to predict new long-term opioid use

NIH-funded research University of California at Davis · NIH-10654837

This study is working on a tool to help doctors spot patients who might end up using opioids for a long time, which can lead to serious problems like overdose, so they can make safer prescribing choices and keep more people healthy.

Quick facts

Grant typeR03 grant
Study typeNIH-funded research
Funding institutionUniversity of California at Davis NIH-funded
Lab location1 site (Davis, United States)
Project IDNIH-10654837 on NIH RePORTER

What this research studies

This research aims to develop a predictive model that helps identify patients at risk of transitioning to long-term opioid use, which is linked to overdose and opioid use disorder. By utilizing prescription drug monitoring programs (PDMPs), the study will analyze statewide prescription data to create a generalizable tool that clinicians can use to make informed prescribing decisions. The goal is to enhance clinical decision-making and reduce the incidence of long-term opioid use among previously opioid-naïve patients. This model will be validated across different states to ensure its effectiveness and applicability.

Who could benefit from this research

Good fit: Ideal candidates for this research are patients who are newly prescribed opioids and have no prior history of long-term opioid use.

Not a fit: Patients who are already on long-term opioid therapy or those with established opioid use disorder may not benefit from this research.

Why it matters

Potential benefit: If successful, this research could significantly reduce the number of patients who develop long-term opioid use and associated health risks.

How similar studies have performed: Previous research has shown promise in using predictive models for opioid prescribing, indicating potential success for this approach.

Where this research is happening

Davis, United States

Researchers

About this research

  1. This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
  2. Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
  3. For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.
Last reviewed 2026-06-13 by the Find a Trial editorial team. Information on this page is for educational purposes and is not medical advice. Always consult qualified healthcare professionals about clinical trial participation.