Predicting how multiple germs spread together
Model-based inference and forecasting of co-circulating pathogen dynamics
['FUNDING_OTHER'] · UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME · NIH-11123353
This project builds computer models to predict how different germs spreading at the same time change disease trends, to help public health and communities plan and respond.
Quick facts
| Phase | ['FUNDING_OTHER'] |
|---|---|
| Study type | Nih_funding |
| Sex | All |
| Sponsor | UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME (nih funded) |
| Locations | 1 site (NOTRE DAME, UNITED STATES) |
| Trial ID | NIH-11123353 on ClinicalTrials.gov |
What this research studies
The researchers will combine many kinds of surveillance data (like case reports and testing data) to create models that link how infections spread with how they are detected. They will use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to blend mechanistic transmission ideas with real-world noisy reporting so the models learn from multiple diseases at once. The team will validate the models by making forecasts of future disease patterns and checking those forecasts against what actually happens. The goal is to produce tools that public health agencies and communities can use to get earlier, more reliable warnings when several infections circulate together.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: Ideal candidates would be people and communities whose infections are captured in public health surveillance (for example, individuals tested or reported for respiratory and other infectious diseases).
Not a fit: People with health issues unrelated to infectious diseases or those not represented in surveillance systems are unlikely to see direct benefits from this project.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, this work could give earlier and more accurate warnings about overlapping outbreaks and guide better prevention and treatment decisions for communities.
How similar studies have performed: Related Bayesian and mechanistic models have improved forecasts for single pathogens in past outbreaks, but applying these methods to simultaneously interacting pathogens is newer and less tested.
Where this research is happening
NOTRE DAME, UNITED STATES
- UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME — NOTRE DAME, UNITED STATES (ACTIVE)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: PERKINS, ALEX — UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME
- Study coordinator: PERKINS, ALEX
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.