Predicting how HIV levels rebound after stopping treatment

Modeling of Viral Load Trajectories for HIV Cure Research

NIH-funded research Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, INC. · NIH-11159521

Researchers are creating models to predict how viral load changes after people with HIV stop antiretroviral therapy.

Quick facts

Grant typeR01 grant
Study typeNIH-funded research
Funding institutionHarvard Pilgrim Health Care, INC. NIH-funded
Lab location1 site (Canton, UNITED STATES)
Project IDNIH-11159521 on NIH RePORTER

What this research studies

From a patient's view, the team will combine viral load and clinical data from several HIV studies to map how the virus rises, peaks, and settles after treatment is stopped. They will use new statistical methods to handle gaps in measurements, tests that can't detect very low virus, and small sample sizes from individual trials. By pooling data from the AIDS Clinical Trials Group and a Zurich cohort, they will look for host, viral, and immune features that help predict time to rebound and the viral set point. The goal is better tools for interpreting treatment-interruption results and for planning future cure trials.

Who could benefit from this research

Good fit: Ideal candidates are people with HIV who have undergone or may join cure trials that include planned antiretroviral treatment interruption and who can share viral load and clinical data.

Not a fit: People who stay on stable ART with no treatment interruption or those without available viral load/clinical data are unlikely to directly benefit from this specific work.

Why it matters

Potential benefit: If successful, this work could help identify who might control HIV without continuous therapy and improve the safety and design of treatment-interruption cure trials.

How similar studies have performed: Prior modeling studies have given useful insights into viral rebound, but pooling multiple trial datasets and using new methods here is a relatively novel step that may improve prediction.

Where this research is happening

Canton, UNITED STATES

Researchers

About this research

  1. This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
  2. Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
  3. For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.
Conditions Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome VirusAcquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Virus
Last reviewed 2026-06-13 by the Find a Trial editorial team. Information on this page is for educational purposes and is not medical advice. Always consult qualified healthcare professionals about clinical trial participation.