Predicting how A/H3N2 seasonal flu changes to escape immunity

Integrating measurements of immune escape and in vitro replication with computational models to understand and predict the antigenic evolution of seasonal A/H3N2 influenza viruses

['FUNDING_R01'] · UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE · NIH-11258991

This project uses lab measurements and computer models to predict which changes in A/H3N2 flu might let the virus evade human immunity.

Quick facts

Phase['FUNDING_R01']
Study typeNih_funding
SexAll
SponsorUNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE (nih funded)
Locations1 site (CAMBRIDGE, UNITED KINGDOM)
Trial IDNIH-11258991 on ClinicalTrials.gov

What this research studies

From a patient perspective, researchers are measuring how specific mutations in the flu surface protein hemagglutinin affect antibody binding and virus replication in the lab. They combine these experimental results with computational models that simulate how flu viruses evolve over time. The team focuses on a small set of key amino acid positions that past work showed can cause big changes in how the immune system recognizes the virus. The goal is to forecast likely antigenic shifts so vaccine strain choices can be better informed.

Who could benefit from this research

Good fit: Ideal participants would be people who can provide blood or nasal samples after flu infection or vaccination, or individuals enrolled in surveillance programs that collect viral samples.

Not a fit: People whose health issues are unrelated to seasonal influenza or who are not providing samples or surveillance data are unlikely to receive direct benefit from this project.

Why it matters

Potential benefit: If successful, this work could help public-health groups choose better seasonal vaccine strains and reduce infections from A/H3N2 influenza.

How similar studies have performed: Previous studies have identified a few key HA sites and shown lab and modeling approaches can explain past antigenic changes, but reliably predicting future immune escape remains challenging.

Where this research is happening

CAMBRIDGE, UNITED KINGDOM

Researchers

About this research

  1. This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
  2. Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
  3. For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.

View on NIH RePORTER →

Last reviewed 2026-05-15 by the Find a Trial editorial team. Information on this page is for educational purposes and is not medical advice. Always consult qualified healthcare professionals about clinical trial participation.