Predicting how A/H3N2 seasonal flu changes to escape immunity
Official title: Integrating measurements of immune escape and in vitro replication with computational models to understand and predict the antigenic evolution of seasonal A/H3N2 influenza viruses
Funded at University of Cambridge · NIH-11258991 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This project uses lab measurements and computer models to predict which changes in A/H3N2 flu might let the virus evade human immunity.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | University of Cambridge NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Cambridge, United Kingdom) |
| Project start | February 7, 2022 |
| Project end | January 31, 2027 |
| Funding year | 2026 |
| Award (this year) | $513,217 |
| NIH project number | 5R01AI165818-05 |
| Project ID | NIH-11258991 on NIH RePORTER |
Who could benefit from this research
✓Could help
Ideal participants would be people who can provide blood or nasal samples after flu infection or vaccination, or individuals enrolled in surveillance programs that collect viral samples.
✕Less likely to help
People whose health issues are unrelated to seasonal influenza or who are not providing samples or surveillance data are unlikely to receive direct benefit from this project.
What this research studies
From a patient perspective, researchers are measuring how specific mutations in the flu surface protein hemagglutinin affect antibody binding and virus replication in the lab. They combine these experimental results with computational models that simulate how flu viruses evolve over time. The team focuses on a small set of key amino acid positions that past work showed can cause big changes in how the immune system recognizes the virus. The goal is to forecast likely antigenic shifts so vaccine strain choices can be better informed.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, this work could help public-health groups choose better seasonal vaccine strains and reduce infections from A/H3N2 influenza.
How similar studies have gone: Previous studies have identified a few key HA sites and shown lab and modeling approaches can explain past antigenic changes, but reliably predicting future immune escape remains challenging.
Where this research is happening
-
University of Cambridge
Cambridge, United Kingdom Active
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Smith, Derek James — University of Cambridge
- Study coordinator: Smith, Derek James
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About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page.