How HIV risk is changing after COVID‑19 and focusing prevention in rural South Africa
Official title: The changing face of HIV in the era of COVID-19: Maximising HIV incidence reduction through dynamic targeting of current and future distributions of acquisition risk.
Funded at Stellenbosch University · NIH-11262832 · Data updated 2026-11-12
This project uses long-term community health data to spot who in rural KwaZulu‑Natal is now most likely to get HIV so prevention can be aimed where it's needed most.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Stellenbosch University NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Stellenbosch, SOUTH AFRICA) |
| Project start | March 1, 2023 |
| Project end | December 31, 2027 |
| Funding year | 2026 |
| Award (this year) | $326,124 |
| NIH project number | 5R01MH131480-04 |
| Project ID | NIH-11262832 on NIH RePORTER |
Who could benefit from this research
✓Could help
Ideal participants are people living in the Africa Health Research Institute surveillance area in rural KwaZulu‑Natal, especially adolescents and adults at risk of HIV exposure.
✕Less likely to help
People who live outside the study area, are at very low risk of HIV, or are already stably on effective treatment with viral suppression may not directly benefit from this specific project.
What this research studies
From my perspective as a community member, researchers will use one of the largest ongoing population cohorts in rural KwaZulu‑Natal to track new HIV infections by age, sex, and location. They will look at how the switch to dolutegravir treatment and COVID‑19 disruptions changed who is vulnerable. The team will use clinic records, community surveys, and demographic surveillance to map current and emerging high‑risk groups. Using those patterns they plan to recommend combinations of prevention services targeted to the people and places with the greatest need.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, this work could help health programs target testing, treatment, and prevention like PrEP more effectively to prevent more HIV infections in high‑burden communities.
How similar studies have gone: Large treatment and prevention scale‑ups in South Africa have already cut new infections, but using dynamic, data‑driven targeting of emerging high‑risk subgroups is a newer approach with limited prior real‑world testing.
Where this research is happening
-
Stellenbosch University
Stellenbosch, South Africa Active
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Tanser, Frank Courteney — Stellenbosch University
- Study coordinator: Tanser, Frank Courteney
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About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page.