Forecasting Valley fever and hantavirus outbreaks in the Phoenix area
DMS/NIGMS 2: Spatial, Multi-Host Petri Net Models for Zoonotic Disease Forecasting
Researchers are building models that combine wildlife, environmental, and health data to predict where and when Valley fever and hantavirus risks may rise for people in the Phoenix area.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Arizona State University-Tempe Campus NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Scottsdale, United States) |
| Project ID | NIH-11182557 on NIH RePORTER |
What this research studies
If you live in the Phoenix metro area, this project builds computer models that bring together data on animals, habitats, weather, and health records to map where spillover to people might occur. The team will collect field data on animal hosts and habitats, combine those observations with public surveillance and environmental datasets, and use spatial multi-host Petri net models and data-science tools to represent complex interactions. By including how species interact and how landscapes change, the models aim to produce location-specific risk patterns that could inform public health actions and warnings.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: People who live in or near the Phoenix, Arizona metro area—especially those with frequent outdoor exposure, work in dusty or rodent-prone environments, or who live near fragmented desert habitat—would be most relevant to this research.
Not a fit: People living far outside the Phoenix region or without exposure to the environmental or animal risks linked to these diseases are unlikely to see direct benefits from this project.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the work could enable earlier, more targeted warnings and prevention efforts that reduce infections from Valley fever and hantavirus in affected communities.
How similar studies have performed: Ecological and outbreak models have helped predict risk in some settings, but applying large-scale spatial multi-host Petri net models to human outbreak prediction is a novel approach that has not yet been widely proven.
Where this research is happening
Scottsdale, United States
- Arizona State University-Tempe Campus — Scottsdale, United States (Active)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Sterner, Beckett — Arizona State University-Tempe Campus
- Study coordinator: Sterner, Beckett
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.