COVID-19 spread and people's protective behaviors
Modeling the Coupled Dynamics of COVID-19 Transmission and Protective Behaviors
This project uses computer models to show how mask-wearing, social contact, fatigue, and vaccination choices change COVID-19 and flu risks for communities.
Quick facts
| Grant type | R01 grant |
|---|---|
| Study type | NIH-funded research |
| Funding institution | Rand Corporation NIH-funded |
| Lab location | 1 site (Santa Monica, United States) |
| Project ID | NIH-11172267 on NIH RePORTER |
What this research studies
The team builds population-level and agent-based computer simulations that combine long-term survey data on attitudes and vaccination behavior with machine learning and synthetic social networks. Models incorporate changing risk perception, behavioral fatigue, peer effects, waning immunity, and seasonal uncertainty to simulate transmission over time. They also simulate how COVID-19 and seasonal influenza interact and whether combined surges could strain health care systems. The work is based at RAND and uses previously collected longitudinal survey data plus new modeling to explore realistic behavioral responses.
Who could benefit from this research
Good fit: People willing to respond to surveys or share information about their vaccination history, mask use, and social contacts—including those with respiratory conditions—would be the best contributors to the data used by these models.
Not a fit: Individuals seeking a direct medical treatment or experimental therapy will not benefit directly because this is a modeling and behavioral-data project rather than a clinical treatment trial.
Why it matters
Potential benefit: If successful, the models could help public-health officials design more effective timing and messaging for interventions to reduce infections and avoid health system overload.
How similar studies have performed: Epidemic models have informed COVID-19 policy before, and the team's prior survey-based agent models support this approach, but explicitly modeling adaptive behavior alongside influenza dynamics is relatively new.
Where this research is happening
Santa Monica, United States
- Rand Corporation — Santa Monica, United States (Active)
Researchers
- Principal investigator: Parker, Andrew — Rand Corporation
- Study coordinator: Parker, Andrew
About this research
- This is an active NIH-funded research project — typically early-stage science, not a clinical trial accepting patient enrollment.
- Some NIH-funded labs run parallel clinical studies or seek volunteers for related work. To check, contact the principal investigator or institution listed above.
- For full project details, budget, and progress reports, visit the official NIH RePORTER page below.